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Europe’s Muslim Population To Triple By 2050 if Migration Levels Continue

Posted: November 30, 2017 at 2:15 pm   /   by

A new study conducted by Pew Research Center has modeled three scenarios, all of which show the European Muslim population growing, with one model predicting that if current migration trends continue the Muslim population of Europe would triple by 2050.

The study noted that Europe’s record influx of asylum seekers fleeing conflicts in Syria and other predominantly Muslim countries, is not necessarily something that will continue. However, countries like Germany have made it clear that migrant workers are a big part of their economic future, and other countries are following suit.  This wave of Muslim migrants has prompted debate about immigration and security policies in numerous countries and has raised questions about the current and future number of Muslims in Europe.

The baseline for all three scenarios is the Muslim population in Europe—defined as the 28 countries presently in the European Union, plus Norway and Switzerland—as of mid-2016, estimated at 25.8 million, or 4.9% of the overall population. This is already an increase from 19.5 million (3.8%) in 2010.

Scenario 1: All migration into Europe immediately and permanently stops.

The Muslim population of Europe still would be expected to rise from the current level of 4.9% to 7.4% by the year 2050. This is because Muslims are younger (by 13 years, on average) and have higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern.

Scenario 2: “Medium” migration scenario.

Assumes that all refugee flows will stop as of mid-2016 but that recent levels of “regular” migration to Europe will continue (i.e., migration of those who come for reasons other than seeking asylum. Under these conditions, Muslims could reach 11.2% of Europe’s population in 2050.

Scenario 3: “High” migration scenario.

Projects the record flow of refugees into Europe between 2014 and 2016 to continue indefinitely into the future with the same religious composition (i.e., mostly made up of Muslims) in addition to the typical annual flow of regular migrants. In this scenario, Muslims could make up 14% of Europe’s population by 2050 – nearly triple the current share…

The study notes that the refugee flows of the last few years are extremely high compared with the historical average in recent decades, and already have begun to decline as the European Union and many of its member states have made policy changes aimed at limiting refugee flows.

The study points out even if regular migration continues at recent levels, but not as many as during the historically exceptional surge of refugees from 2014 to 2016 then the share of Muslims in Europe’s population as of 2050 would be expected to be somewhere between 11.2% and 14%. If the immigration stance of leaders like Germany’s Angela Merkel holds sway in other EU nations than those numbers are the likely result.

Germany is in fact one of the countries that would see the greatest changes to its population if trends hold, as it is one of the largest recipients of Muslims right now. Germany’s population, which was 6% Muslim in 2016, would be projected to be about 20% Muslim by 2050 in the high scenario. It is this issue more than anything that has created an inability for Merkel to be able to form a government since the last elections, and why here popularity along with that of other pro-immigration politicians continues to lag.

Sweden, which also has accepted a relatively high number of refugees, would experience even greater effects if the migration levels from 2014 to mid-2016 were to continue indefinitely: Sweden’s population, which sat at 8% Muslim in 2016, could grow to 31% Muslim in the high scenario by 2050.

France, and the UK would also see a Muslim population of close to 18% in the high scenario.

The Muslim migrants are predominantly not assimilating into European and have no intention of doing so. In fact whole neighborhoods in Sweden are being left alone by police for fear of reprisal from Muslim refugee residents!

Add to that the fact that Europeans on whole are not reproducing, and in fact represent a dying population. If it weren’t for the influx of migrants, Europe would literally be depopulating itself. This obviously makes the chance of cutting immigration non-realistic since bodies are needed to drive European economies and Europe is not producing them themselves!

These numbers are truly telling and deeply troubling for Europe in general, and are the biggest reason why recent national elections have seen the rise of anti-immigrant candidates.

Joseph Morgan
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Joseph Morgan

Team Writer at Western Free Press
Joseph was born and raised in Tucson, AZ. He received a Master's in U.S. history, with an emphasis on American constitutionalism from the UA, with a minor in Aerospace Mechanical Engineering. He took a job right out of college as a financial advisor, then switched career paths to teaching History at Pima Community College, while tutoring mathematics on the side. He also writes op-eds for the Arizona Daily Star, Tucson's largest newspaper, and has recently begun a new, live, calling radio show Common Sense heard every Saturday at 1 p.m. on 1030 AM KVOI, The Voice. He has a passion for politics and debate, believing that, we the people, must converse with each other about ideas and become engaged in the political formative process, as opposed to simply reacting to what government does. His ideological emphasis, in which he believes everyone can find common ground, is natural rights philosophy.
Joseph Morgan
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Europe's Muslim Population To Triple By 2050 if Migration Levels Continue